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UBS forecasts elevated S&P 500 volatility in 2025, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting policy rates, and geopolitical risks. With government stimulus waning, slower nominal growth is expected, particularly in China and the US, leading to intermittent volatility spikes.The potential for significant policy changes and escalating tariff tensions under the current administration adds unpredictability. UBS anticipates the key measure of market volatility to average around 20% in 2025, with volatility-of-volatility exceeding 110%, as earnings dispersion narrows and stock correlations rise.
UBS forecasts elevated S&P 500 volatility in 2025, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, policy shifts, and geopolitical risks. With government stimulus waning, slower nominal growth is expected, particularly in China and the US, leading to intermittent volatility spikes linked to growth data.The firm anticipates the volatility index to average around 20%, with volatility-of-volatility exceeding 110%. Additionally, concerns over tech earnings and potential tariff tensions could further complicate the economic landscape, particularly affecting European equities and US markets.
Dow futures are struggling as traders await jobs data. Nvidia shares rose 1.5% following CEO Jensen Huang's positive CES speech, while Micron Technology stock surged nearly 6% after being mentioned as a memory supplier for Nvidia. Carvana and Uber Technologies also saw gains of 4% and over 3%, respectively, with Carvana's rating upgraded and Uber collaborating with Nvidia on autonomous-driving technology.
Stocks are set to open higher, with Nvidia's shares rising following the launch of its next-generation gaming graphic cards. Micron also saw a boost after Nvidia's CEO announced that the company will supply memory for these GPUs, indicating strong collaboration in the tech sector.
Asian shares mostly rose, buoyed by a Wall Street rally led by Nvidia, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 2.4%. U.S. Steel surged 8.1% after filing a lawsuit against President Biden's merger block, while investors await potential policy shifts under President Trump. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Federal Reserve's upcoming minutes and jobs report are anticipated to impact markets.
Experts are warning of a potential bear market in 2025, predicting a decline of 20% or more due to the stock market's current 'frothy' conditions, which could severely impact millions of 401(K)s and the broader economy. Analysts highlight that high valuations, particularly among major tech stocks, are unsustainable and could lead to significant corrections. Concerns about asset bubbles and the influence of retail investors further exacerbate the situation, with some predicting a market drop this year, though long-term investors may view it as a temporary setback.
U.S. stock futures are poised to open higher, building on early gains as the new year begins. This positive momentum comes as Treasury yields rise, providing a welcome shift after a challenging period for the stock market. Key movers include Nvidia, Super Micro, MicroStrategy, and Plug Power.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman anticipates the introduction of the first AI agents into the workforce this year, with significant advancements towards artificial general intelligence (AGI) expected by 2025. These autonomous AI systems are designed to make decisions and execute complex tasks with minimal human input. Altman envisions that superintelligent tools could greatly enhance scientific discovery and innovation, leading to increased prosperity.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicts that 2025 will usher in a new long-tail capital market driven by AI and tokenization, enabling smaller businesses to access capital markets. He anticipates a rise in "Bitcoin Standard Corporations" and an unfreezing of mergers and acquisitions, which could further benefit the crypto landscape. The transformative potential of real-world asset tokenization is expected to play a significant role in this evolution.
U.S. stock index futures remained steady following a strong week for Wall Street, driven by technology stocks. Investors are anticipating key jobs data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, with December employment expected to show an addition of 154,000 jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Tech stocks rebounded, with notable gains from NVIDIA and Tesla, as the market looks ahead to a potentially positive 2025.
NVIDIA Corporation
Companies
| Symbol | NVDA |
| Name | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Currency | USD |
| Sector | Information Technology |
| IndustryGroup | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment |
| Industry | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment |
| Market | NASDAQ Global Select |
| Country | United States |
| State | CA |
| City | Santa Clara |
| Zipcode | 95051 |
| Website | http://www.nvidia.com |
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
s and p 500 volatility expected to rise amid economic uncertainties in 2025
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